Sheppard

Vertical Playbook · For PE-backed Platforms

HVAC

Heating, cooling, and indoor air. The flagship trade for PE roll-ups.

HVAC has become the bellwether trade for residential services PE — recurring maintenance plans, high-ticket replacement work, and weather-driven demand spikes that reward an always-on demand engine. The sponsors who win compound brand equity across DMAs while running tight CAC at the unit level.

Operating Realities

The way the trade actually runs.

  • 01Seasonal demand swings 3–5x — paid budgets need to flex without losing share of voice.
  • 02Replacement leads ($8–15k tickets) and service leads ($300 tune-ups) require different funnels, ad creative, and bid logic.
  • 03Service agreements are the EBITDA backbone — but marketing rarely treats memberships as a measured channel.
  • 04Most platforms run 6–12 vendor relationships per portco. Consolidation is the fastest EBITDA unlock you'll find.

The Sheppard Playbook

What we install in hvac platforms.

— 01

Unify the lead taxonomy

Standardize lead source, call type, and disposition across every portco CRM. Without a common schema, platform-level attribution is fiction.

— 02

Separate the replacement engine from service

Build distinct funnels, creative, and budget bands for high-ticket replacement leads vs. maintenance and repair. Bid by margin, not by volume.

— 03

Local SEO at scale

Treat each DMA as a P&L. Standardize GBP, review velocity, and structured citations. The platform that wins local pack visibility wins the next ten years.

— 04

Membership as a marketing channel

Memberships are recurring revenue with brand equity attached. Build a member-acquisition KPI alongside lead-cost and measure LTV, not first-call revenue.

— 05

Demand sensing for weather + supply shocks

Heat domes and cold snaps move demand in 48 hours. Pre-build creative, geo-bid templates, and budget shifts so operators capture the spike without scrambling.

KPIs We Move

What the sponsor sees on the dashboard.

Booked-call rate

Cost per booked call

Replacement opportunity ratio

Member acquisition cost

Local pack visibility by DMA

Marketing-sourced EBITDA contribution

Frequently Asked

On hvac in private equity.

Why has private equity invested so heavily in residential HVAC?

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Fragmented operator base, recurring service revenue, weather-driven demand independent of the macro cycle, and the operational room to capture 150-400 bps of EBITDA by professionalizing marketing and dispatch. Platforms like Apex Service Partners, Champions Group, and Service Champions have demonstrated the consolidation thesis at scale — and capital flow into the category has accelerated, with HVAC the most active home services trade for PE platform formation through 2026.

What EBITDA multiple do PE-backed HVAC platforms trade at?

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Platform-scale HVAC businesses ($25M-$75M EBITDA) have traded at 10-14x in recent years, with the most operationally mature platforms at the high end. Add-on multiples typically range 6-9x, with the spread reflecting the integration premium the platform pays for. The multiple is materially affected by marketing maturity — clean attribution, consolidated vendor stack, sponsor-grade reporting, and exit-ready data room can defend the high end of the band; the lack of those gives buyers room to negotiate down.

What does marketing for a PE-backed HVAC platform look like?

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PE-backed HVAC marketing is built around four operating realities: weather-driven demand spikes (3-5x seasonal swings), distinct funnels for high-ticket replacement leads vs. lower-ticket service work, membership/maintenance plans as the EBITDA backbone, and platform-wide local-pack visibility across every DMA. The strongest platforms run a unified lead taxonomy, separate replacement and service funnels, and treat memberships as a measured marketing channel — not an afterthought.

What KPIs matter most for HVAC marketing in private equity?

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Booked-call rate, cost per booked call, replacement-opportunity ratio, member acquisition cost, local-pack visibility by DMA, and marketing-sourced EBITDA contribution. These six metrics surface the unit economics sponsors actually underwrite. Generic ad-platform KPIs (impressions, CTR, CPC) are lagging indicators that miss what's happening at the platform level.

How do you market a multi-DMA HVAC roll-up?

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Standardize the lead taxonomy first — every portco CRM uses the same source, type, and disposition schema. Then run local-pack obsession DMA by DMA: standardized GBP, review velocity, citation cleanup, and structured-data discipline. Brand architecture for the roll-up matters more than most sponsors realize — the platforms that win build one parent brand with consistent identity at every customer touchpoint.

What's the typical EBITDA impact of fixing HVAC marketing?

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A platform with disorganized vendor concentration, inconsistent attribution, and undermanaged local presence typically captures 150-400 bps of EBITDA improvement inside 18 months from marketing alone. The largest single lever is usually vendor consolidation — replacing 8-12 portco-level vendors with a coordinated platform stack. Local SEO and membership-acquisition retooling are close behind.

Engage Sheppard

Have a hvac platform under LOI?

We can be in the data room next week with a commercial diligence on the marketing engine. Pre-close, post-close, or pre-exit — same operating model.

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